Cross-Regional: Maintenance and development of pricing and forecasting models framework (EBRD-2036)

  • Europe and Central Asia
Geographic location where the impacts of the investment may be experienced.
Financial Institutions
  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
International, regional and national development finance institutions. Many of these banks have a public interest mission, such as poverty reduction.
Project Status
Stage of the project cycle. Stages vary by development bank and can include: pending, approval, implementation, and closed or completed.
Bank Risk Rating
Environmental and social categorization assessed by the development bank as a measure of the planned project’s environmental and social impacts. A higher risk rating may require more due diligence to limit or avoid harm to people and the environment. For example, "A" or "B" are risk categories where "A" represents the highest amount of risk. Results will include projects that specifically recorded a rating, all other projects are marked ‘U’ for "Undisclosed."
A public entity (government or state-owned) provided with funds or financial support to manage and/or implement a project.
  • Finance
The service or industry focus of the investment. A project can have several sectors.
Investment Amount (USD)
Not Disclosed
Value listed on project documents at time of disclosure. If necessary, this amount is converted to USD ($) on the date of disclosure. Please review updated project documents for more information.
Primary Source

Original disclosure @ EBRD website

Updated in EWS Mar 11, 2024

Disclosed by Bank Dec 21, 2023

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Project Description
If provided by the financial institution, the Early Warning System Team writes a short summary describing the purported development objective of the project and project components. Review the complete project documentation for a detailed description.

According to the Bank’s website, the Local Currency (LCY) and Capital Markets Development Initiative (the Initiative) aims to promote the use of local currencies and develop local capital markets in the EBRD region. High levels of foreign currency use, especially foreign currency lending to unhedged borrowers without adequate financial buffers, in most countries of the EBRD region creates significant macro prudential risks contributing to excessive economic cyclicality, disproportionately affecting the poor.

The EBRD is committed to address these issues by providing local currency loans where possible. This has been challenging in emerging countries where LCY funding markets are underdeveloped and other (off-shore) sources of funding are scarce or unavailable. Lack of developed LCY markets and benchmark interest rates make it necessary to base such fixed LCY interest rate pricing on projection of country-level macroeconomic variables and investors` risk preferences. More specifically, pricing LCY rates at different tenors whilst running interest rate risk necessitates the use of an interest rate swap (IRS) pricing model based on projections of country-level macroeconomic variables and risk preference modelling for different tenors.

In early transition countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan - where LCY markets are underdeveloped, market based curves (for various products, e.g. IRS and XCCY swaps) are either non-existent or do not provide good price discovery. As a result, this impedes LCY usage and impairs market development. The projection of such country-level macroeconomic variables can be made possible by the help of Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) models, as well as employing risk compensating yield curves models, which are based on the macroeconomic projections derived from the (semi theoretical, semi-market based) FPAS models.

Investment Description
Here you can find a list of individual development financial institutions that finance the project.

Investment type not available at the time of disclosure.

Contact Information
This section aims to support the local communities and local CSO to get to know which stakeholders are involved in a project with their roles and responsibilities. If available, there may be a complaint office for the respective bank which operates independently to receive and determine violations in policy and practice. Independent Accountability Mechanisms receive and respond to complaints. Most Independent Accountability Mechanisms offer two functions for addressing complaints: dispute resolution and compliance review.

General enquiries

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The Project Complaint Mechanism (PCM) is the independent complaint mechanism and fact-finding body for people who have been or are likely to be adversely affected by an European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)-financed project. If you submit a complaint to the PCM, it may assess compliance with EBRD's own policies and procedures to prevent harm to the environment or communities or it may assist you in resolving the problem that led to the complaint through a dialogue with those implementing the project. Additionally, the PCM has the authority to recommend a project be suspended in the event that harm is imminent.

You can contact the PCM at: or you can submit a complaint online using an online form at:

You can learn more about the PCM and how to file a complaint at:

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How it works